The 2024 General Elections will be on Nov. 5. That’s the same day that is known as Guy Fawkes Day. If you know of Guy Fawkes or have seen V for Vendetta, you’d know that Fawkes was one of those involved in the Gunpowder Plot which attempted to assassinate King James VI of England and Scotland. Depending on who you support, both sides will probably see Fawkes as their representative.
Proving there’s no such thing as an off-year when it comes to elections, people may have finally learn the mistakes of the Elections of 2010 where the TEA Party movement won a lot of elections and turning some progressive states like North Carolina on their side. Probably the biggest win happened in the state of Kentucky where Sen. Mitch McConnell has been in office so long, he’ll probably be leaving feet first. And despite rumors, Daniel Cameron, Attorney General for the state, isn’t related by marriage to McConnell.
But he might as well been, because people have associated Cameron, who’s black, with McConnell. Since twice freezing up in front of live cameras, McConnell is 81 and has left the question open of how old is too old for elected officials. Why people talk of President Joe Biden’s age when Donald Trump isn’t that much younger either? This isn’t like a reverse high school mentality where the younger you are the more adequate you are for the job. I understand the concern, but Biden isn’t showing the signs of dementia or mental illness like Trump is. Even though I think Mitt Romney is correct, people born around WWII don’t need to be in elective office.
Anyway, Cameron, who became in the spotlight for how, for lack of a better word, piss-poor way, he handled the killing of Breonna Taylor seemed to be another “Uncle Tom” doing whatever Massa wanted. It probably didn’t help that the federal trial of former Louise Metro Police Detective Brett Hankison is ongoing. I mean, if people in Kentucky needed another reason not to elect Cameron, this was it. Incumbent Governor Andy Beshear won re-election with 52.5 percent of the votes or about 67,000 more votes. Kentucky is known for being a red state but the tide might be changing.
Beshear ran on abortion and reproductive rights. This shows the 2024 election just like the 2022 election will focus on abortion and women and reproductive rights. It could be true the Republican Party lost some of its stranglehold by overturning Roe v. Wade. Voters in Ohio to the north of Kentucky (which went to Trump in 2020 same as Kentucky) passed a ballot measure for abortion rights. This might be a sign of the change in 2024 as Ohio, a swing states, goes blue.
And Democrats in the Virgina statehouse won which will probably prevent the Republicans and their Gov. Glenn Youngkin from passing abortion restriction bills easier. Dan McCafferty, a Democrat, won a seat on the Pennyslvania Supreme Court. He also pledged to uphold abortion rights in his campaign. In Rhode Island, Gabe Amo, a Democrat, because the first black Congressman.
While most people don’t really care much about school board elections, but this year, many candidates backed by Moms for Liberty, the far-right conservative organization, lost all over the country. The organizaton which wants to ban many books and has worked tirelessly to do so has also been endorsed by Trump on previous occasions. This might be a sign as well that people are just fed up with Trump and everything he touches.
So, for the most part, Democrats did pretty well. But you can’t win them all, especially in a place like Mississippi where Gov. Tate Reeves held on to his seat defeating Brandon Presley, second-cousin to, well, the King himself. Reeves won by securing more than 37,000 votes or 51.7 percent, just enough needed. But the state had change a provision that had disenfranchised black voters and kept black candidates from winning statewide offices. But with a state with 40 percent black population, it may cause the Republican Party to sweat.
It’s a victory, but winning in Mississippi by a slim margin might be a sign of the times and as Bob Dylan sang, they are “a-changing.” And that might spell some big trouble in 2024. As Trump’s civil fraud trial is ongoing in Manhattan and looks like it’s probably not going to go his way, Republicans have a huge decision to make. Trump caused them to lose 2018, 2020 and 2022 even though they barely won the House. But the problems in the House may prove a win unlikely in 2024.
Trump himself said that Cameron lost because he couldn’t get away from McConnell’s “stench.” Well, I’d argue that the stench of Trump is also on many of the Republicans as well. This might just be a fraction of a lost caused by Trump but it’s a fraction they moves them farther away. Republicans have mainly lost four elections because of Trump. They’re fighting amongst themselves. How can they still consider him in 2024?
They may have to just cut him loose in 2024. Things don’t look too promising in Georgia where people are pleading guilty and willing to testify against Trump. States are looking to keep Trump off the ballot citing “insurrection” and the events of Jan. 6, 2021. While some if not all will be appealed, the likelihood the U.S. Supreme Court will determine another Presidential election is possible.
Polls show Trump leading in swing states, but I don’t know who’s doing the polling. I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll and most may be relying on people with land lines or people who just answer their cell phones. This can be a disadvantage because younger people don’t even answer the phone from people they know. I think one thing people haven’t considered is how younger voters will determine the 2024 election and that should and probably has scared both sides.
While younger people may lean toward Democrats, they’re facing a future that both sides want to just to their liking. Gen Xers may have to suck it up and leave nostalgia in the past. That’s been one of their biggest problems in the recent years and it’s turning them into the new “Boomers.” Holding on to too many things can be dangerous.
It’s still a good year until the next general election. A lot of things might change between now and Nov. 5, 2024. Gas prices could drop even more. I’ve just heard a tentative deal has been reached with the SAG-AFTRA which will help out more than actors when movie and TV productions start up again. And a lot of people don’t really care for America’s response to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.
This is a weird period as history has shown nothing is a sure thing. At the end of 1991, President George H.W. Bush could do no wrong and seemed to be heading toward an easy re-election. Then he got sick in front of the Japanese Prime Minister, followed by the rise of H. Ross Perot (which cost him more votes than it did Bill Clinton), the L.A. Riots and his terrible response. It also didn’t help that then-Vice-President Dan Quayle did more damage with his incorrect spelling of “potato” and criticism of Murphy Brown. Americans were tired of Bush.
As for Clinton, he went into 1996 looking bleaked but won re-election being called “The Comeback Kid.” And things didn’t look so good for President Barack Obama for a long time between the 2010 and 2012 elections. It could be that the polls are just pure bullshit, meant to stoke a fire in people to remain serious and vigilant. That’s because the 2024 election will probably be the most important election in decades.
Trump hasn’t been quiet about what he would do in a second term. He would basically install a Christo-Fascist dictatorship loyal only to him. That means the military will answer to him and the Republicans will install those in office who are loyal to the President. The problem with this is Republican should realize it could backfire tremendously. They only need to look at history to see how it will happen.
While Trump has said he will go after his political opponents, he will also go after those who he sees as a threat from his own party. It’s very common and many dictators have done it. The risks outweight the rewards but the Republican Party has never relied on long-term effects just knee-jerk reactions. They can’t even see that they’re dying and have only used gerrymandering to stay in control.
Going back to 1992, only once since then has a Republican Presidential candidate won the popular vote. That’s 10 elections and only one win. People do not want a Republican in the White House. And Boomers have traditionally favored Repuiblicans but their numbers are dwindling. By 2024, they may face a bigger drop in numbers. In 2013, an estimated 2.5 million Americans died. By 2020, that number had increased to 3.5 million due in part to Covid-19 pandemic. Long-term effects of Covid as well as concerns over pnuemonia and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) for people over 65 has been in the news a lot lately.
A lot of the things such as border security and crime that drive older people to vote a certain way is different from other things that younger voters are concerned about. It’s hard to pull a “Willie Horton ad” in 2024 because a lot of people will see through the racism of it. Republicans will do whatever they can to stay in power especially intimidations at the polls. The only good thing is that a Democrat will be in office when the House and Senate meet to confirm the results in January of 2025. I don’t think people will risk another insurrection coup attempt like that again. But you never know.
For all we know, Trump may be in prison or dead by the time Nov. 5, 2024 rolls around. And when Trump is gone, the Republican Party will die with him. If they lose in 2024, then, they will likely lose in 2026. Most conservatives are jumping ship to the Libertarian Party. If they can learn from the mistakes the Republicans made in the 1960s and keep the racist bigots out, they may become the next major political party.
But I don’t look for it to be a easy transition. I’ve been saying for years the 2020s will be the definitive decade which will determine the future of America. Sadly, a lot of people don’t like change that doesn’t help personally benefit them. There will be blood.
What do you think? Please comment.
Zane Says 